An ALCS comeback from down 3-0? Here's why these Astros could pull it off

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At the end of every day during the baseball postseason, I run a set up simulations to estimate the updated probabilities for each series and the ultimate outcome of the bracket. I add the newest results to a log and send them in to Bristol HQ, for inclusion in our ongoing coverage of the playoffs.

Here is the progression of the odds of the Houston Astros of winning the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, as well as the World Series, over the past eight days:

Date Win ALCS Win WS Result Oct. 8 36.6% 8.9% Clinched LDS over Oakland Oct. 11 24.4% 6.9% Lost Game 1 to Tampa Bay Oct. 12 12.7% 3.4% Lost Game 2 to Tampa Bay Oct. 13 3.6% 1.1% Lost Game 3 to Tampa Bay Oct. 14 7.1% 2.2% Won Game 4 over Tampa Bay Oct. 15 15.3% 4.6% Won Game 5 over Tampa Bay

This is like that scene in a movie where a character is drowning — let’s call him “Astro” — and is pulled out of water by the hero, whom we’ll call “Dusty.” Dusty launches into some desperate CPR and starts pleading with Astro

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