With a month to go, national forecaster Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight launched its House forecast for 2020. According to the outfit, there are only four races in Florida that aren’t solidly in the hands of one party or the other. No House contests in the Sunshine State appear on a list of true toss-ups, but these are the contests in play.
Notably, a Democratic incumbent represents the only district in the “Lean Democrat” column— or a “Lean” category at all. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman who ousted Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo in 2018, faces Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez in a tough reelection fight.
FiveThirtyEight prognosticators still say the incumbent is favored to win, but they see plenty of ways she can lose. Running 40,000 model simulations on the race, a sample shows Mucarsel-Powell emerges victorious 72% of the time.
That gives her a slightly better chance of winning her district than Joe Biden has of winning Florida right now (67% for the curious). But the prognosticators say it will be close. The forecast predicts a final vote share with Mucarsel-Powell claiming 53% and Giménez 47%.
Congressional District 15 is the most closely