Kevin Cate: Hillary Clinton will win by a Florida landslide – Florida … – Florida Politics (blog)
Hillary Clinton will win Florida, and therefore, the presidency.
Floridians have been voting since Sept. 19, and Hillary has led the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Florida average almost every single one of those days.
Since Sept. 25, she’s led or been tied with Donald Trump all but four days — the Comey fallout, and tonight, as I write this, she’s down 0.2 percent.
At FloridaTurnout.com, we are treating every day votes are cast as one inning. In Florida, we have 51 innings, or 51 days when votes are being cast by mail, early, or on Election Day. We believe there are only about three million votes left.
By using the RCP average, which inherently also averages the turnout models of fairly conservative-leaning public polling, and voter files from 67 supervisors of elections, we are able to snapshot public sentiment and couple it with actual vote counts, every day.
Those public polls obviously have a large “undecided” vote, which we’ve pushed into a two-party vote based on the margins of the decided vote.
We’ve also stripped out 2.5 percent from the two-party vote because we know, from some experience and some internals, that Florida will have way more under- or other-candidate votes than the last two presidential cycles. However, it really doesn’t matter in our model whether that number is 2.5 percent or 5 percent, because we are only really trying to extrapolate one number, a win margin.
Our model shows Clinton leading the two-party vote right now by 1.09 percent and we have not seen any data to suggest otherwise — and, boy, has there been a lot of data thrown around.
Like in Duval County, where Trump should be dominating, he’s underperforming. There has been record early, in-person turnout in blue strongholds like Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.