Mega NFL projections: Likely Super Bowl LIV matchups, 2020 draft order, more

7:30 AM ET

Hank Gargiulo

Close ESPN Analytics Data management analyst at ESPN Graduate of Sacred Heart University

Seth Walder

Patrick Mahomes already is the reigning MVP. Now he’s a Super Bowl favorite, too.

Mahomes, Andy Reid and the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs have a 16 percent chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy following Super Bowl LIV, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), tops in the NFL.

FPI is our prediction model for the NFL. Preseason ratings are based on each team’s Las Vegas win total; last season’s performance on offense, defense and special teams; the number of returning starters; coaching staff changes; and starting and backup quarterbacks. FPI produces team rankings (released on Wednesday) and season projections, which we’re unveiling for the 2019 season for the first time here.

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Super Bowl LIV favorites | 2020 draft projections
Team-by-team | Strength of schedule | Miami miracle?

A quartet of favorites

In 2019, FPI loves the Chiefs. Though Kansas City was knocked out by the New England Patriots in the AFC title game last season, FPI thought the Chiefs remained the best team in football in 2018 even after the

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