President Donald Trump’s ardent, and apparently fiscally bereft, supporters are deluding themselves on the prediction market, Predictit.
Predictit is a trading market where users can essentially buy stock in election outcomes. The concept is similar to the stock market in that the idea is to buy low and sell high.
But at this point in the process, users are still buying shares in presidential outcomes that have already been determined.
This is not a thought experiment. Actual money is involved and people are so wrapped up in Trump’s baseless claims that he won the election they are actually throwing money away on a prediction market to further broadly rejected conspiracy theories about the election.
Let’s just take a look at the numbers.
On who will win the popular vote in the 2020 election, Trump is still trading at 8 cents. That means the market has Trump with about an 8% chance of winning the popular vote. Here’s the thing. Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the popular vote by 5.9 million votes. Let’s say that again, five point nine million votes.
Will a woman be elected U.S. Vice President this year? That’s only trading