I have no delusions about Charlie Crist’s prospects for success in winning back the job from which, just over a decade ago, he walked away.
Before he can go one-on-one with incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will likely have a nine-figure campaign fund as well as any and all of the resources of the Florida and national GOP, Crist must emerge from a sure-to-be-freewheeling Democratic primary that will likely involve Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and U.S. Rep. Val Demings, plus the spoiler who inevitably joins the race.
I’d peg Crist’s chances of pulling this off at about 5%.
If the politics of the last decade have taught us anything, it’s to not discount the improbable. There’s success in the offing for those who short the unbeatable stocks. Marco Rubio outflanking Crist. Rick Scott‘s three elections. Donald Trump taking Florida from Jeb Bush and Rubio. Andrew Gillum and DeSantis‘s primary wins. DeSantis’s election.
At some point, each of those victories, which seem so inevitable in hindsight, had about a five percent chance of happening.
It’s as if all of Florida politics is powered by the Infinite Improbability Drive from “Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.“
Now, mind you, Crist is not the