A third-party poll shows Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez leading Democrat Javier Fernandez by six percentage points in Senate District 39. More alarming for most Democrats, the same poll shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden there by the same margin.
A poll by The Tyson Group shows Republicans dominating a generic ballot in the predominantly Hispanic district. If true, that means gains among South Florida Hispanics made by Democrats under President Barack Obama have largely wiped away.
Results of the survey show Trump winning 48% of the district vote to Biden’s 42%, with 62% of Hispanic voters favoring the Republican incumbent and only 28% picking the Democrat.
That’s in a district Democrat Hillary Clinton won 53% to Trump’s 43% in 2016.
As for the open Senate contest to replace moderate Republican Sen. Anitere Flores, Rodriguez leads with 37% to Fernandez’s 31%. She’s taking 49% of the Hispanic vote.
The Tyson Group reports a 95% confidence interval for the poll, which was conducted between Sept. 8 and 11.
“We are not forecasting a winner. We don’t do that,” said pollster Ryan Tyson, who stressed the poll intends to spot trends, not measure horseraces. “But clearly atmospherics are