Poll: After late start, Traci Koster leads Jessica Harrington in HD 64

Republican Traci Koster leads her Democratic challenger, Jessica Harrington, by five points, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey released Tuesday.

Koster leads the district among 48% of likely voters surveyed in House District 64 to Harrington’s 43% while 9% remain undecided.

While outside the poll’s margin of error, Koster’s lead is less than the margin by which former HD 64 Rep. James Grant won against Harrington two years ago. In 2018, Grant carried the district with 52% of the vote to Harringon’s 45%. No party affiliated candidate Andy Warrener received the remaining 3%.

Koster’s margin is also lower than the voter registration for Republicans in the district. Republicans have a seven point advantage with 39% of all voters while Democrats carry just 32%. The difference in support for Koster compared to Grant’s victory margin two years ago is largely explained by an increase in Democratic voter registration in the district from 2016 to this year. The party saw a nearly 2% boost in voter representation.

Still, Koster’s support tracks with that of President Donald Trump this election. In the same poll, HD 64 voters showed 51% support for Trump compared to just 47% for Biden with only 1%

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