Strong turnout among Florida Democrats predictably would produce good news for Joe Biden on Election Day. And a new poll suggests even if Republicans slightly outperform Democrats getting their voters to polls, the former Vice President will comfortably win the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes.
A Clearview Research poll, shared exclusively to Florida Politics, shows Biden leading in Florida using three different turnout models.
The first survey results show 47% of likely voters plan to vote for Biden and just 40% favor Donald Trump. Another 2% will vote for another candidate and 9% remain undecided. But that’s based on a “neutral” turnout model, one predicting Republicans and Democrats will each make up an even 39% of voters who cast ballots this November. Clearview Research President Steve Vancore also wanted to know where things stand if one side or the other outperforms in terms of get-out-the-vote efforts. So he ran the model using Democrat- and Republican-friendly assumptions.
If Democrats make up 2% more of the electorate than Republicans, Biden’s lead grows to 48% to 39%. That’s no shock.
More important, Biden also leads Trump 46% to 41% even if Republicans make up 2% more of the voting pool. That’s an especially