Poll shows even under optimal GOP conditions, Joe Biden holds the lead in Florida

Strong turnout among Florida Democrats predictably would produce good news for Joe Biden on Election Day. And a new poll suggests even if Republicans slightly outperform Democrats getting their voters to polls, the former Vice President will comfortably win the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes.

A Clearview Research poll, shared exclusively to Florida Politics, shows Biden leading in Florida using three different turnout models.

The first survey results show 47% of likely voters plan to vote for Biden and just 40% favor Donald Trump. Another 2% will vote for another candidate and 9% remain undecided. But that’s based on a “neutral” turnout model, one predicting Republicans and Democrats will each make up an even 39% of voters who cast ballots this November. Clearview Research President Steve Vancore also wanted to know where things stand if one side or the other outperforms in terms of get-out-the-vote efforts. So he ran the model using Democrat- and Republican-friendly assumptions.

If Democrats make up 2% more of the electorate than Republicans, Biden’s lead grows to 48% to 39%. That’s no shock.

More important, Biden also leads Trump 46% to 41% even if Republicans make up 2% more of the voting pool. That’s an especially

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