Projected 2019 NFL draft order: Welcome to No. 1, Arizona
10:00 AM ET
The Raiders’ win over the Cardinals in Week 11 moved Arizona to the top of our projections for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, and the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) believes it’s a three-team race between Arizona, Oakland and San Francisco.
Each week, FPI projects the order of next year’s draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game location.
In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That’s because the FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven’t yet occurred and projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, which is a tiebreaker for draft order.
Below is FPI’s projected first-round order for the 2019 draft, based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. While each team’s current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have