U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson’s re-election efforts this year may yet prove successful, but could siphon dollars to the Sunshine State that Democrats should spend elsewhere, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institute.

The Washington, D.C.-based institute today launched a new series on its FixGov blog analyzing the most competitive Senate races in the nation, and started with Nelson’s battle against Republican challenger and two-term Gov. Rick Scott.

“This race is surprisingly close: Nelson’s status as an incumbent in the out-party during a midterm election in a presidential swing state would normally add up to a relatively secure reelection,” writes Gregory Koger.

But that the race takes place in a swing state that President Donald Trump frequently visits and where he appears to be as popular as he won when he won Florida’s electoral votes in 2016.

The institute cites a Marist poll that shows health care and guns as leading issues for Democratic voters while immigration, health care and foreign policy remain front-burner for GOP voters.

The analysis notes Florida as home of both the Pulse and Parkland shootings, along with the subsequent #MarchForOurLives movement, but said that will only prove relevant in young

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