Why Donald Trump’s ballot ‘dump’ tweet is misleading

As votes were being tabulated Tuesday night in Georgia’s two tight Senate runoff contests, President Donald Trump predicted election officials in the state would release a large tranche of results that would overwhelm the Republican candidates. And he implied that it would be an act of voter fraud.

“Looks like they are setting up a big ‘voter dump’ against the Republican candidates. Waiting to see how many votes they need?” the president tweeted just before 10:30 p.m. ET.

In reality, however, such lead swings and releases of voting results during an election are commonplace and ordinary.

How are they ordinary?

They reflect the usual ebb and flow of a process that entails tabulating and releasing massive batches of results, with leads often changing hands as counting continues.

For example, Floyd County, Georgia, a Republican stronghold where Trump has previously held a rally, released all of its results Tuesday in one big ballot drop around 10 p.m., which juiced the early returns in favor of GOP candidates Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

The candidate lead swings can be particularly pronounced when votes are recorded in population-dense counties, which often favor Democratic candidates.

Why does the President’s

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